shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-17 23:39:34 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get iran-sanctions-snapback-2026
> status: 0.36 WATCH
> severity 3.9 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-08

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.12/b ▼
TTF       €62.35/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.08● 0.0%TTF€62.35▲1.00%HH$2.70● 0.0%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.1%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu● 0.0%BRENT$91.08● 0.0%TTF€62.35▲1.00%HH$2.70● 0.0%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.1%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.89/bu● 0.0%
~/scenarios/iran-sanctions-snapback-2026·metodologia: v3.2cita · /api/v1/scenarios/iran-sanctions-snapback-2026
// SNAPBACK-2026 · WATCH

Ripristino integrale delle sanzioni sul greggio iraniano.

Iran in via primaria · Cina + Golfo a cascata · greggio + nolo

WATCHSTATOWATCH
WATCHPROBABILITÀ · INTERNA0.36
WATCHGRAVITÀ3.9/ 5
WATCHULTIMA REVISIONE2026-05-08
probability 0.36
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIALE · analisi dello scenarioscenario SNAPBACK-2026·ultima revisione 2026-05-08
Briefing dello scenario · v3.2 · 2026-05-08

Ripristino integrale delle sanzioni sul greggio iraniano.

// L'ipotesi

Un ripristino coordinato delle sanzioni multilaterali inasprisce nettamente l'applicazione delle misure contro le esportazioni di greggio iraniano e la logistica della loro flotta ombra.

Iran in via primaria · Cina + Golfo a cascata · greggio + nolo

// Impatto modellato

L'utilizzo delle esportazioni iraniane cala di 0,8-1,2 mb/g; le raffinerie cinesi che assorbono i barili scontati si riforniscono dal Golfo, attingendo alla capacità inutilizzata dell'OPEC+ e rafforzando il Brent.

Probabilità e gravità sono stime interne basate sulla metodologia v3.2. Dati DEMO, non citabili.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · modello d'impatto interattivo

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · interessate

OIL.BRTGreggio Brent · a pronti $91.08/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · esposizione

Iran / IRNregione MENA · stress 0.91Cina / CHNregione East Asia · stress 0.34Arabia Saudita / SAUregione MENA · stress 0.42

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · registro correlato

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob. 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob. 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.62// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob. 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob. 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.49// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob. 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob. 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob. 0.50