shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 16:50:27 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage scenario get pacific-island-fuel-crisis-2026
> status: 0.49 ELEVATED
> severity 3.4 / 5
> reviewed 2026-05-09

// readout · live

BRENT     $91.37/b ▼
TTF       €63.92/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    298.7 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%BRENT$91.37▼0.51%TTF€63.92▲0.30%HH$2.75▲0.36%SPR_US298.7 Mb15.3dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.83/bu▼0.62%
~/scenarios/pacific-island-fuel-crisis-2026·metodologia: v3.2cita · /api/v1/scenarios/pacific-island-fuel-crisis-2026
// PACIFIC-FUEL-2026 · ELEVATED

Crisi del carburante delle isole del Pacifico.

12 economie insulari del Pacifico · diesel + elettricità

ELEVATEDSTATOELEVATED
ELEVATEDPROBABILITÀ · INTERNA0.49
ELEVATEDGRAVITÀ3.4/ 5
ELEVATEDULTIMA REVISIONE2026-05-09
probability 0.49
READ MODE// long-form zoneEDITORIALE · analisi dello scenarioscenario PACIFIC-FUEL-2026·ultima revisione 2026-05-09
Briefing dello scenario · v3.2 · 2026-05-09

Crisi del carburante delle isole del Pacifico.

// L'ipotesi

Lunghe catene di approvvigionamento e l'impennata dei prezzi legata alla guerra in Iran lasciano gli Stati insulari del Pacifico, totalmente dipendenti dalle importazioni, incapaci di permettersi il diesel per la generazione elettrica.

12 economie insulari del Pacifico · diesel + elettricità

// Impatto modellato

L'elettricità, l'acqua e i trasporti si comprimono in tutto il Pacifico; diversi Stati ricorrono a finanziamenti d'emergenza e aiuti per il carburante.

Probabilità e gravità sono stime interne basate sulla metodologia v3.2. Dati DEMO, non citabili.

[ 01 ]  $_SIMULATOR · modello d'impatto interattivo

$_SIMULATOR · estimated impact · client-side model
SPARE ABSORBED0.95mb/d
CUSHION REMAINING2.85mb/d
EST. PRICE SHOCK+43%
RECOVERY HORIZON118days

Illustrative client-side estimate from base spare capacity 3.8 mb/d. DEMO model, not for citation.

[ 02 ]  $_COMMODITIES · interessate

OIL.BRTGreggio Brent · a pronti $91.37/bbl

[ 03 ]  $_COUNTRIES · esposizione

Papua Nuova Guinea / PNGregione Oceania · stress 0.58Figi / FJIregione Oceania · stress 0.55Isole Salomone / SLBregione Oceania · stress 0.62Vanuatu / VUTregione Oceania · stress 0.62Samoa / WSMregione Oceania · stress 0.58Tonga / TONregione Oceania · stress 0.60Kiribati / KIRregione Oceania · stress 0.70Tuvalu / TUVregione Oceania · stress 0.72Nauru / NRUregione Oceania · stress 0.68Palau / PLWregione Oceania · stress 0.55Isole Marshall / MHLregione Oceania · stress 0.66Micronesia / FSMregione Oceania · stress 0.62

[ 04 ]  $_SCENARIOS · registro correlato

// HORMUZ-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.34// SANCTIONS-Q3WATCH · prob. 0.58// WHEAT-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.22// MALACCA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.18// EU-COLDSNAP-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// MONSOON-2026WATCH · prob. 0.27// BLACKSEA-HALT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.31// GULF-REFINERY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.23// SAHEL-FAMINE-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.62// SNAPBACK-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// PAKISTAN-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.33// GULF-HURRICANE-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.44// RAREEARTH-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// IRAQ-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.29// IBERIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.30// FR-NUCLEAR-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.24// EU-GAS-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.46// EU-INDUSTRY-2026WATCH · prob. 0.52// BALKANS-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.41// UA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.55// NORTHSEA-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.33// NORDIC-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.37// PANAMA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// CARIBBEAN-FUEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.48// CUBA-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.57// ANDEAN-HYDRO-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// US-GULF-2026WATCH · prob. 0.36// EASTASIA-LNG-2026WATCH · prob. 0.45// CENTRALASIA-2026WATCH · prob. 0.43// LEVANT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.54// SOUTHASIA-FERT-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.50// SEASIA-GRID-2026WATCH · prob. 0.42// CAUCASUS-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.31// GULF-EXPORT-2026WATCH · prob. 0.38// SAF-GRID-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.53// SAHEL-2026ELEVATED · prob. 0.56// WAFRICA-POWER-2026WATCH · prob. 0.47// EAFRICA-FX-2026WATCH · prob. 0.46// MAGHREB-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// CAFRICA-OIL-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.34// ISLANDS-2026WATCH · prob. 0.44// ANZ-ENERGY-2026MONITORING · prob. 0.30// PACIFIC-CYCLONE-2026WATCH · prob. 0.40// ALPINE-SWE-2026 · prob. 0.62// EU-FOREST-2060 · prob. 0.45// RIPARIAN-2026 · prob. 0.50