US Gulf Coast hurricane disrupts refining and LNG export.
prob 0.44
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06monitoring · US refining + LNG · European + Asian LNG buyers$ shortage country get USA > stress_index: 0.18 STABLE > 6 events · 4 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
The United States is the world's largest crude and natural-gas producer and a net energy exporter, with deep commercial inventories and the 372-million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Domestic cereal output far exceeds consumption, leaving the country structurally insulated from most global shortage shocks. Residual exposure runs through refined-product logistics and concentrated critical-mineral imports.
Recurrent drought across the Southwest and Great Plains has drawn the Colorado River reservoirs to historic lows, while the Great Lakes hold near-normal levels.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · Strategic Petroleum ReserveHeld in four Gulf Coast salt-cavern sites; well below the ~700 Mbbl pre-2022 level after the record drawdown, with a slow refill under way. | ~372 Mbbl | 18days | WATCH |
| Crude · commercial inventoriesCommercial crude stocks reported weekly by the EIA, broadly within the five-year range. | ~440 Mbbl | 22days | STABLE |
| Refined products · commercialIncludes the small Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve held against regional disruption. | ~230 Mbbl gasoline | 25days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · underground storageWorking gas in storage tracked weekly by the EIA; the US is structurally long gas. | ~2,300 Bcf | 30days | STABLE |
| Grain · stocks-to-useNo government strategic grain reserve, but large privately held corn and wheat stocks and surplus production. | ample | 90days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/USA | jq '.stress' > 0.18