$ shortage bankruptcies watch --global > EU Q1 2026 51,540 > 3 countries critical > updated 2026-05-16
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Corporate insolvency monitor for the 2026 Iran-war crisis — EU and global Q1 2026 tallies, sector composition, notable failures and firms under watch as fuel costs cascade through aviation, chemicals and agriculture.
51,540 bankruptcies in Q1 2026 across the 12 tracked countries. Italy ranks #1 with +38% YoY. Spirit Airlines (US) is the first direct casualty of the Iran war. Wizz Air and airBaltic are at risk.
| country | Q1 2026 | YoY | EU rank | main driver | notable |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 16,500 | -8% | #3 | Stabilization after the 2024 peak. Less exposed to the energy crisis thanks to nuclear power. | No major name since Casino in 2024. Small businesses under strain. |
| Italy | 7,820 | +38% | #1 | Compound crisis: Iran war + dependence on Qatari LNG + jet fuel rationing at 7 airports | Lufthansa cites 'systemic risk' for the Italian aviation sector |
| Germany | 6,450 | +22% | #2 | Expensive energy, INEOS and Dow close several sites. Technical recession expected (ECB) | INEOS Rheinberg (2 plants), Dow Bohlen + Schkopau (550 jobs) |
| Poland | 5,200 | +11% | #4 | Rising energy and fertilizer costs. Grupa Azoty running below capacity. | Several agricultural SMEs |
| Belgium | 3,450 | +25% | #5 | Yara Tertre closed. APETRA constrained. Brussels Airport under pressure. | Yara Tertre (400 kt/yr ammonia) CLOSED |
| Hungary | 2,350 | +18% | #6 | Dependence on Russia + compound crisis | Several subcontractors |
| Sweden | 2,100 | -8% | #12 | Stabilization. Less exposed to the Iran crisis. | H-Bird Airlines in liquidation |
| Switzerland | 1,980 | +26% | #6 | Rising energy costs. Heavy export exposure. | Several industrial SMEs |
| Spain | 1,850 | -8% | #8 | Benefits from a strong energy position (refining + diversified LNG + EUR 500M fertilizer aid) | No major recent bankruptcy |
| Austria | 1,640 | +14% | #9 | Compound: Iran war + Druzhba damage. Alpine tourism affected. | Borealis Linz output reduced |
| Netherlands | 1,320 | +18% | #7 | Rising logistics costs (fuel), critical gas storage at 18% | Yara Sluiskil running at 55%. Concerns over Schiphol. |
| Slovakia | 880 | +35% | #13 | Compound: Druzhba damage at Slovnaft + Iran war + dependence on Russia | Several automotive suppliers in difficulty |
| sector | share | YoY | note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Construction | 22% | +12% | Slower property market + material costs + interest rates |
| Retail | 18% | +8% | Consumption curbed by food inflation |
| Industry/Manufacturing | 15% | +28% | Expensive energy and gas, difficult exports |
| Hospitality/Restaurants | 12% | +18% | Tourism affected by fuel costs and insecurity |
| Transport/Logistics | 10% | +25% | Diesel +25% + supply chain pressure |
| Chemicals/Petrochemicals | 7% | +45% | INEOS, Dow, BASF closing. 9% of EU capacity idled |
| Aviation | 5% | +80% | Spirit (first Iran-war failure), AlpAvia, H-Bird. Wizz Air at risk |
| Agriculture | 6% | +32% | Fertilizers +49%, 70% of US farmers unable to pay |
| Services | 5% | +5% | More stable, B2B continues |
| date | company | country | sector | type | jobs | cause |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | Dow Bohlen + Schkopau | Germany | Chemicals | Site closures (2027) | 550 | Steam cracker + chlor-alkali + vinyl. CO2 costs + energy + weak demand |
| 2026-05-02 | Spirit Airlines | USA | Aviation | Cessation of operations | 13,000 | Fuel costs from the Iran war — the first bankruptcy directly attributed to the war |
| 2026-04-22 | INEOS Rheinberg (2 units) | Germany | Chemicals | Site closures | 350 | Expensive energy + lack of tariff protection + collapse of the petrochemical chain |
| 2026-04-10 | Yara Tertre | Belgium | Fertilizers | Ammonia plant closure | 280 | Expensive gas + weak ammonia market + Asian competition |
| 2026-03-15 | AlpAvia | Slovenia | Aviation | Liquidation | 180 | Fuel costs + collapse in charter demand after the Iran war |
| 2025-12-15 | H-Bird Airlines | Sweden | Aviation | Court-ordered liquidation | 220 | Loss of operating licence, anticipating the fuel crisis |
| company | country | sector | risk | risk factor | specific risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wizz Air | Hungary/UK | Aviation | HIGH | Ryanair's CEO named it as one of 2-3 carriers at risk of bankruptcy in winter 2026 | Fuel costs at $150/bbl could add $600M per year |
| airBaltic | Latvia | Aviation | HIGH | Latvia's parliament approved a EUR 30M emergency loan to 'mitigate the impact of the Middle East conflict' | Tight cash position, government intervening |
| Lufthansa CityLine | Germany | Aviation | MODERATE | Lufthansa is winding down CityLine and retiring 27 older aircraft | Major restructuring — jobs at stake |
| Small EU regional carriers | Multiple | Aviation | HIGH | Margins crushed by fuel costs doubling, falling tourism demand | 2-3 carriers at risk of bankruptcy in winter 2026 according to O'Leary |
| BASF Ludwigshafen | Germany | Chemicals | HIGH | Ammonia output -40%, chronic losses | Restructuring announcement expected in Q3 2026 |
| EU chemical SMEs | Multiple | Chemicals | HIGH | 9% of EU chemical capacity scheduled for closure | Small specialized firms disappearing |
| region | YoY | key countries |
|---|---|---|
| North America | +9% | US +9%, Canada -4% |
| Western Europe | +3% | Italy +38%, Switzerland +26%, FR -8%, UK -1% |
| Eastern Europe | +19% | Slovakia +35%, Hungary +18%, Poland +11% |
| Asia-Pacific | +7% | China +10%, Taiwan +14%, Japan +4% |
| Middle East | +34% | Iran +85%, Israel +42%, Saudi Arabia +18% |
| Latin America | +16% | Argentina +25%, Brazil +18% |
| Africa | +21% | Egypt +28%, Kenya +22%, South Africa +20% |
| Russia/Former USSR | +36% | Ukraine +45%, Russia +28%, Turkey +32% |
Source: Allianz Trade Global Insolvency Outlook 2026-27 + 'Brace for Middle East spillovers' (April 2026). +15,000 additional company bankruptcies in 2026-2027 due to the Iran war. Asia absorbs 54% of the increase.