Ukrainian grid collapse under sustained strikes.
prob 0.55
severity 4.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-11elevated · Ukraine + Moldova · power + grain logistics$ shortage country get UKR > stress_index: 0.84 CRITICAL > 4 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Ukraine is one of the world's largest grain and sunflower-oil exporters, but the war has inflicted severe damage on its power generation and grid and disrupted Black Sea export logistics. Domestic gas production covers most demand in normal times. Repeated strikes on energy infrastructure and mined farmland define its acute exposure.
War has damaged Ukraine's water infrastructure — the Kakhovka dam breach drained a major reservoir — amid recurrent southern drought.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude and products · commercial inventoriesRefining and fuel logistics have been heavily damaged by strikes; product supply is fragile and reliant on imports. | war-disrupted | 15days | CRITICAL |
| Natural gas · underground storageUkraine holds extensive underground storage and produces most of its own gas, though generation and grid damage strain winter supply. | large capacity | 60days | WATCH |
| Electricity · damaged generation baseRepeated strikes have removed a large share of generating capacity, forcing emergency imports and load-shedding. | severely impaired | — | CRITICAL |
| Grain · exportable surplusUkraine runs a vast cereal surplus, but exports depend on the Black Sea corridor and overland routes through the EU. | very large | 200days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/UKR | jq '.stress' > 0.84