shortage.life · last_sync · 2026-08-18 13:50:24 UTCbuild 83e413e · node v22.22.2

// node

shortage.life
brussels
● online · 8 sources

// $_ exec

$ shortage country get NGA
> stress_index: 0.64 WATCH
> 3 events · 1 scenarios
> refreshed 2026-05-17

// readout · live

BRENT     $90.79/b ▼
TTF       €62.72/MWh ▲
OPEC_ORB  $108.8/b ●
SPR_US    304.8 Mb ▼
FAO_FFPI  130.3 ▼
revalidate 15mUTC 00:00:00
$_TICKER
BRENT$90.79▼0.38%TTF€62.72▲0.22%HH$2.72▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.86/bu▼0.65%BRENT$90.79▼0.38%TTF€62.72▲0.22%HH$2.72▲0.37%SPR_US304.8 Mb15.6dEU_GAS61.5%18c avgOPEC_ORB$108.79● flatFAO_FFPI130.3▼0.4%WHT$6.86/bu▼0.65%
~/countries/NGA·region: West Africa·tier: monitored·methodology: v3.2cite · /api/v1/countries/NGA

Nigeria / NGA

ISO NGANG│capital: Abuja│region: West Africa│population: 223M
WATCH
STRESS INDEX · v3.20.64

[ 00 ]  $_COMMODITIES · NGA · live readings

NGA · top by value

JODI · USDA WASDE · AGSI+ · latest 2026-03-15
  1. oilprod1.42mb/d● 0.1%
  2. oilstock32.54Mbbl▲ 5.0%
  3. oilexp1.09mb/d● 0.3%
  4. oilimp0.033mb/d▲ 10.0%
  5. dieselprod0.13mb/d▲ 44.4%
  6. dieselstock4.13Mbbl▼ 15.9%
  7. gasolineprod0.31mb/d▲ 24.0%
  8. gasolinestock7.75Mbbl▲ 4.9%

NGA · biggest movers (m/m)

|Δ| desc — anomaly-led view · latest 2026-05-13
  1. jet-fuelprod0.13mb/d▲ 62.5%
  2. dieselprod0.13mb/d▲ 44.4%
  3. gasolineprod0.31mb/d▲ 24.0%
  4. dieselstock4.13Mbbl▼ 15.9%
  5. oilimp0.033mb/d▲ 10.0%
  6. oilstock32.54Mbbl▲ 5.0%
  7. gasolinestock7.75Mbbl▲ 4.9%
  8. wheatimp6.31Million Metric Tons▼ 0.9%

[ 01 ]$_STRESS INDEX · v3.2 composite

COMPOSITE · 0–1 SCALE0.64

The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.

stress index · 18-month history0–1 composite

[ 02 ]$_MACRO · economy and territory

NOMINAL GDP$360 bn
GDP PER CAPITA$1,600
AREA923,768 km²
POPULATION223M
INFLATION · 202628%
INFLATION FORECAST · 202722%
CURRENCY DEPR. · 1Y18%
PUBLIC DEBT / GDP50%
UNEMPLOYMENT5%
ELECTRICITY ACCESS61%
electricity generation mix · %
  • Fossil78 78.0%
  • Nuclear0 0.0%
  • Renewables22 22.0%
inflation · 2022–2027%

[ 03 ]$_ENERGY PROFILE · production and consumption

OIL PRODUCTION1.4 mb/d
OIL CONSUMPTION0.45 mb/d
GAS PRODUCTION45 bcm
GAS CONSUMPTION20 bcm
POSTUREnet exporter
IMPORT DEPENDENCYnet surplus 100%

[ 04 ]$_FOOD POSTURE · cereals

CEREAL SELF-SUFFICIENCY80%
POSTUREnet importer
key commodities:
oilgasricewheat

[ 05 ]$_RESILIENCE · oil cover

OIL STOCK COVER20days

[ 06 ]$_COUNTRY BRIEF · shortage posture

Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer and most populous country, yet for years it imported most of its refined fuel because domestic refineries were dilapidated — a dependence the new Dangote refinery is beginning to reverse. Oil theft, pipeline sabotage and underinvestment cap crude output. Power supply is chronically short.

[ 07 ]$_VULNERABILITIES · pressure points

[ 08 ]$_WATER · drought & lake levels

WATER STRESSmoderate
DROUGHTmoderate

Nigeria's far north faces recurrent drought, and Lake Chad on its border has shrunk dramatically over decades.

MAJOR LAKES & RESERVOIRS
  • Lake Chad (shared)low
  • Kainji Reservoirbelow normal

[ 09 ]$_EVENTS · tagged register

3 events recorded
2026-04-05ECONFertilizer shortage threatens African plantingAFAP — African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership2026-03-15ECONPower deficit spreads across West AfricaECOWAS Energy2024-05-29ECONNigeria's fuel-subsidy removal reshapes its economyNNPC

[ 10 ]$_SCENARIOS · with exposure

// WAFRICA-POWER-2026

West African power deficit.

prob 0.47
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-07watch · 13 West African economies · power + industry
open scenario →

[ 11 ]$_STRATEGIC RESERVES · by stock type

STOCK TYPERESERVEDAYS COVERSTATUS
Crude · production and exportAfrica's largest oil producer, though theft and underinvestment cap output.~1.4 mb/d output20daysWATCH
Refined products · Dangote refinery and importsThe vast Dangote refinery is starting to cut decades of fuel-import reliance.transitioning25daysWATCH
Electricity · gas, hydro and an unstable gridGeneration and the grid fall far short of demand; self-generation is widespread.fragile—CRITICAL
Grain · commercial stocksDomestic output covers most cereal demand; rice and wheat are partly imported.moderate45daysWATCH

[ 12 ]$_CORPORATE FAILURES · Q1 2026

Q1 2026 FILINGS2,600
YEAR-ON-YEAR▲ +14%
RANK · WORLD#29
OilManufacturingAgriculture

[ 14 ]$_GEOPOLITICAL · energy-infrastructure incidents

8 incidents in zone
2026-08-14Nigerians will ultimately enjoy benefits of my administration economic reforms , Tinubu tells NUPENGunknown · GDELT
2026-08-12COMING TOMORROW : Inside the Shell Nigeria Files – Royal Dutch Shell Plc . comunknown · GDELT
2026-08-11Nigerian cost of living pain deepens as election loomsunknown · GDELT
2026-08-11Nigeria : Ten Oil Spills Recorded in Niger Delta in Julyunknown · GDELT
2026-07-30S & P Strengthens Africa Market Involvement After Investment In Nigeria Agusto & Counknown · GDELT
2026-07-27Operation Delta Sentinel : How the Nigerian Navy is Turning the Tide Against Crude Oil Theft – THISDAYLIVEunknown · GDELT
2026-07-27Oil Asset Protection to Boost Nigeria Licensing Roundunknown · GDELT
2026-07-14Nigeria faces renewed crude output pressure as oil prices rise above budget benchmarkunknown · GDELT
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/NGA | jq '.stress'
> 0.64
endpoint: /api/v1/countries/NGA·MCP: get-country-profile(iso=NGA)·license: CC-BY-4.0