Gulf hydrocarbon export disruption.
prob 0.38
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 10 Gulf and Red Sea economies · oil + LNG exports$ shortage country get IRQ > stress_index: 0.61 WATCH > 7 events · 4 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer and overwhelmingly dependent on crude for state revenue and exports. It flares much of its associated gas and must import gas and power from Iran, leaving the electricity grid fragile. Recurrent drought and salinity have cut domestic cereal output, raising reliance on wheat and rice imports.
Reduced flows on the Tigris and Euphrates and consecutive drought years have shrunk Iraq's marshes and reservoirs.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · commercial inventoriesAs OPEC's second-largest producer Iraq holds crude at southern terminals; storage and export capacity at Basra is the limiting factor. | moderate | 20days | WATCH |
| Refined products · domesticLimited refining capacity forces product imports; supply is fragile and exposed to grid and logistics disruption. | tight | 15days | CRITICAL |
| Natural gas · imported supply bufferIraq flares much of its associated gas and relies on imported Iranian gas for power; there is effectively no storage buffer. | minimal | 5days | CRITICAL |
| Wheat · strategic grain reserveState wheat reserve supports the public distribution ration; drought and salinity have cut domestic output. | moderate | 120days | WATCH |
| Rice · strategic reserveRice stocks held against falling domestic paddy output and rising import reliance. | limited | 90days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/IRQ | jq '.stress' > 0.61