Gulf hydrocarbon export disruption.
prob 0.38
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 10 Gulf and Red Sea economies · oil + LNG exports$ shortage country get ARE > stress_index: 0.38 STABLE > 7 events · 3 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
The United Arab Emirates is a major crude exporter with rising production capacity and a significant LNG and refining base. It holds modest spare capacity behind Saudi Arabia. With negligible agriculture it imports about 90 percent of its food, and has invested heavily in overseas farmland and reserve storage to manage that exposure.
The UAE has no natural lakes or rivers and relies almost entirely on desalination amid extreme water scarcity.
No major lake or reservoir
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · Fujairah strategic storageCrude held at Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, partly fed by a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. | large | 35days | STABLE |
| Crude · spare production capacityModest spare capacity held behind Saudi Arabia, with ADNOC targeting higher sustainable output. | ~0.5 mb/d | — | WATCH |
| Refined products and LNG · domesticSupported by domestic refining and a significant LNG export base at Das Island. | adequate | 30days | STABLE |
| Wheat · strategic grain reserveADAFSA maintains a multi-month wheat buffer; with negligible agriculture the UAE imports about 90 percent of its food. | ~1.5 Mt | 200days | WATCH |
| Food · diversified import and reserve programmeInvestment in overseas farmland and reserve storage to manage near-total food-import dependence. | expanding | 120days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ARE | jq '.stress' > 0.38