Sahel and Sudan famine escalation.
prob 0.62
severity 4.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-14elevated · Sudan + Sahel · acute food insecurity + aid logistics collapse$ shortage country get SDN > stress_index: 0.88 CRITICAL > 4 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Sudan's economy has collapsed under civil war, with crude output and the pipeline transiting South Sudanese oil severely disrupted. Fuel imports are erratic and unaffordable for much of the population. Conflict has displaced farmers and broken supply chains, driving one of the world's largest acute food-insecurity crises with famine conditions in several regions.
Sudan depends on the Nile amid recurrent drought, and conflict has further disrupted its water infrastructure.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude and products · commercial inventoriesCivil war has shattered fuel supply; the pipeline transiting South Sudanese crude has been repeatedly disrupted and imports are erratic. | depleted | 7days | CRITICAL |
| Wheat · strategic grain reserveConflict, displacement and lost planting seasons have collapsed cereal output; reserves cannot buffer one of the world's worst food crises. | critically low | 30days | CRITICAL |
| Sorghum and millet · staple stocksDomestic staple stocks broken by displacement of farmers and the breakdown of supply chains, with famine confirmed in several regions. | severely depleted | 25days | CRITICAL |
| Humanitarian food · aid pipelineAid stocks depend on access through Port Sudan and overland corridors that are repeatedly blocked or struck. | constrained | 20days | CRITICAL |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/SDN | jq '.stress' > 0.88