Pacific island fuel crisis.
prob 0.49
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09elevated · 12 Pacific island economies · diesel + power$ shortage country get PNG > stress_index: 0.58 WATCH > 2 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Papua New Guinea exports LNG from the major PNG LNG project and is rich in gold and copper, yet rugged terrain leaves most of its population without grid electricity. It imports refined fuel and rice. Resource wealth has not broadly translated into development.
Papua New Guinea is water-rich, though El Niño droughts cause highland frosts and water shortages.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas · PNG LNG exportThe PNG LNG project is a major export earner. | large | — | STABLE |
| Oil · imported fuel stocksRefined fuel is imported; distribution is hard across rugged terrain. | limited | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · hydro, diesel and gasMost of the population lacks grid electricity. | fragile | — | CRITICAL |
| Grain · rice stocksRoot crops are the dietary base; rice is imported. | limited | 30days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/PNG | jq '.stress' > 0.58