South Asian fertilizer and fuel crunch.
prob 0.50
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 8 South Asian economies · fertilizer + fuel + food$ shortage country get PAK > stress_index: 0.73 WATCH > 4 events · 3 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Pakistan imports most of its oil and a growing share of gas as LNG, with chronic foreign-exchange shortages limiting its ability to pay for cargoes. Recurrent balance-of-payments crises and IMF dependence constrain energy buying. Domestic wheat output nearly covers demand but the country imports in deficit years, and fertilizer affordability is a recurring strain.
Pakistan is among the most water-stressed large countries, its Indus reservoirs and aquifers under heavy strain.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude and products · commercial inventoriesForeign-exchange shortages constrain cargo purchases, leaving fuel cover thin and exposed to balance-of-payments shocks. | very low | 12days | CRITICAL |
| Natural gas · LNG-dependent supplyA growing share of gas is imported as LNG, with little storage; cargo financing is the binding constraint. | minimal storage | 6days | CRITICAL |
| Wheat · PASSCO strategic reservePASSCO and provincial food departments hold wheat for the public ration; the 2025 over-import episode disrupted procurement. | moderate | 90days | WATCH |
| Fertilizer · urea bufferDomestic urea production plus import buffer; affordability is a recurring strain on smallholder agriculture. | limited | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/PAK | jq '.stress' > 0.73