Prolonged Panama Canal drought disruption.
prob 0.44
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 8 Pacific-facing economies · freight + grain + fuel$ shortage country get MEX > stress_index: 0.42 STABLE > 2 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Mexico produces substantial crude but its state oil company's output has declined for two decades, and it imports a large share of its natural gas and refined fuel from the United States. New refining capacity is intended to cut that dependence. Maize and other cereal imports leave food supply exposed to trade and price shocks.
Mexico has faced severe drought, drawing reservoirs near Mexico City and in the north to critical lows.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · commercial inventoriesDomestic crude output has fallen for years; stocks are managed by the state oil company Pemex. | moderate | 30days | WATCH |
| Natural gas · import-dependent supplyMost gas is imported by pipeline from the United States; domestic storage is minimal. | thin | 8days | CRITICAL |
| Refined products · domestic and importedRefining has long fallen short of demand; new capacity is intended to reduce product imports. | tight | 25days | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksMexico imports a large share of its maize and wheat, mostly from the United States. | moderate | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MEX | jq '.stress' > 0.42