Ukrainian grid collapse under sustained strikes.
prob 0.55
severity 4.6 / 5 · revision 2026-05-11elevated · Ukraine + Moldova · power + grain logistics$ shortage country get MDA > stress_index: 0.62 WATCH > 5 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Moldova is one of Europe's poorest and most energy-dependent states, importing almost all of its fuel and historically reliant on Russian gas and on power from the Russian-backed Transnistria region. It has scrambled to re-source energy via Romania since 2022. Its economy is heavily agricultural — grain, fruit and wine.
Moldova faces recurrent severe drought that strains its agriculture and the Dniester supply.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas · re-sourced supplyMoldova has rerouted gas procurement through Romania after cutting direct dependence on Russian supply; the buffer is small. | thin | 15days | CRITICAL |
| Oil · commercial inventoriesFuel stocks are thin and fully import-dependent through Romanian and Ukrainian routes. | very low | 20days | CRITICAL |
| Grain · exportable surplusAn agricultural economy, Moldova produces a cereal surplus alongside fruit and wine. | moderate | 110days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MDA | jq '.stress' > 0.62