Pacific island fuel crisis.
prob 0.49
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09elevated · 12 Pacific island economies · diesel + power$ shortage country get KIR > stress_index: 0.70 CRITICAL > 1 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Kiribati, a vast scattering of low-lying atolls, imports all of its fuel and food, generating power from diesel with a growing solar share. As one of the world's lowest-lying nations, sea-level rise is an existential threat to its very territory.
Kiribati has no surface freshwater and depends on rainwater and fragile atoll lenses under chronic drought.
No major lake or reservoir
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported across vast, remote atolls. | limited | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · diesel and solarDiesel generation, with growing solar, supplies remote atoll grids. | fragile | — | CRITICAL |
| Food · commercial stocksWith negligible agriculture, Kiribati imports all of its food. | limited | 25days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/KIR | jq '.stress' > 0.70