Central Asian winter power and gas shortfall.
prob 0.43
severity 3.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-07watch · 6 Central Asian economies · gas + power$ shortage country get KAZ > stress_index: 0.36 STABLE > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Kazakhstan is a major crude-oil exporter and the world's largest uranium producer, with a significant wheat surplus. Its dominant oil-export route runs through Russia via the CPC pipeline, a concentration that is its defining vulnerability. Landlocked, it depends entirely on transit through neighbours.
Kazakhstan faces severe water stress — the Aral Sea has largely vanished and Lake Balkhash is under strain.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · production and exportKazakhstan exports most of its crude; the binding constraint is the Russia-routed CPC pipeline. | ~1.9 mb/d output | 90days | WATCH |
| Natural gas · production and storageDomestic gas output exceeds demand, though processing capacity limits supply to some regions. | surplus | 60days | STABLE |
| Grain · exportable surplusKazakhstan runs a structural wheat surplus and is a major Central Asian grain exporter. | large | 140days | STABLE |
| Uranium · productionKazakhstan is the world's largest uranium producer, a pillar of global nuclear fuel supply. | world's largest | — | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/KAZ | jq '.stress' > 0.36