European winter gas-supply squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 4.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 45 European markets · gas + power + storage refill$ shortage country get ISL > stress_index: 0.22 STABLE > 2 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Iceland generates all of its electricity and heat from geothermal and hydropower, leaving it uniquely insulated on power, but it imports every drop of liquid fuel for its fishing fleet, aviation and road transport. Negligible arable land makes it a near-total importer of cereals, offset by a large seafood-export sector. Isolation in the North Atlantic is the defining logistical constraint.
Iceland is exceptionally water-rich, with abundant glacial rivers and lakes.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · commercial inventoriesIceland holds modest fuel stocks; supply depends on regular tanker calls to a remote island. | limited | 30days | WATCH |
| Electricity · geothermal and hydroDomestic renewable generation covers all power and heating, insulating Iceland from electricity shocks. | structural surplus | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial stocksNegligible cereal output leaves Iceland reliant on imported staples. | minimal | 25days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ISL | jq '.stress' > 0.22