South Asian fertilizer and fuel crunch.
prob 0.50
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 8 South Asian economies · fertilizer + fuel + food$ shortage country get IND > stress_index: 0.47 STABLE > 4 events · 3 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
India is the world's third-largest oil consumer and imports over 85 percent of its crude, making it highly exposed to price and freight shocks. It has built strategic petroleum reserves but cover remains thin. Cereal output is large enough for self-sufficiency and rice exports, though fertilizer imports and monsoon variability are persistent pressure points.
India's water security hinges on the monsoon; reservoir levels and groundwater in the north and south fall sharply in weak-rain years.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · Strategic Petroleum ReserveISPRL caverns at Visakhapatnam, Mangaluru and Padur; cover is thin against import dependence above 85 percent, with phase-II sites under development. | ~39 Mbbl | 10days | CRITICAL |
| Crude · commercial inventoriesRefiner commercial stocks supplement the strategic reserve but combined cover remains low by IEA standards. | moderate | 12days | WATCH |
| Wheat · FCI buffer stockThe Food Corporation of India holds wheat well above the operational and strategic buffer norm for the public distribution system. | ~25 Mt | 150days | STABLE |
| Rice · FCI buffer stockLarge rice buffer supports the public distribution system and underpins India's position as the top rice exporter. | ~30 Mt incl. unmilled | 200days | STABLE |
| Natural gas · LNG-dependent supplyLimited storage; gas supply is balanced through LNG terminal regasification rather than stockholding. | minimal storage | 8days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/IND | jq '.stress' > 0.47