European winter gas-supply squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 4.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 45 European markets · gas + power + storage refill$ shortage country get BLR > stress_index: 0.58 WATCH > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Belarus runs on cheap Russian energy — it refines Russian crude at Mozyr and Novopolotsk and depends almost entirely on Russian gas. Sanctions have isolated its economy and tied it ever closer to Moscow. It is a major potash producer and broadly self-sufficient in cereals.
Belarus has ample water resources, with extensive rivers, lakes and marshes.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · refinery feedstock from RussiaThe Mozyr and Novopolotsk refineries run on Russian crude delivered by the Druzhba pipeline. | pipeline-fed | 30days | WATCH |
| Natural gas · Russian pipeline supplyGas is supplied almost entirely by Russia at subsidised prices; there is little independent buffer. | import-based | 25days | WATCH |
| Grain · state reserveBelarus is broadly self-sufficient in cereals and holds a state grain reserve. | adequate | 100days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/BLR | jq '.stress' > 0.58