Prolonged Panama Canal drought disruption.
prob 0.44
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 8 Pacific-facing economies · freight + grain + fuel$ shortage country get BRA > stress_index: 0.36 STABLE > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Brazil is a major crude producer from its offshore pre-salt fields and one of the world's great agricultural exporters — soybeans, maize, sugar, coffee and beef. Its power grid runs largely on hydropower, backed by sugarcane ethanol. Refining shortfalls and a hydro-dependent grid are its main exposures.
Brazil is globally water-rich, but the Amazon has seen record drought and the south-east's reservoirs run low in dry years.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · pre-salt productionOffshore pre-salt fields make Brazil a net crude exporter with rising output. | ~3.7 mb/d output | 30days | STABLE |
| Refined products · commercialRefining lags demand, so Brazil imports diesel and other products despite exporting crude. | tight | 25days | WATCH |
| Electricity · hydropowerHydropower dominates the grid; ethanol and thermal plants backstop drought years. | drought-sensitive | — | WATCH |
| Grain · exportable surplusBrazil runs a vast soybean, maize and sugar surplus and is a pillar of world food trade. | very large | 130days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/BRA | jq '.stress' > 0.36