South Asian fertilizer and fuel crunch.
prob 0.50
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 8 South Asian economies · fertilizer + fuel + food$ shortage country get BGD > stress_index: 0.62 WATCH > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $105.4/b ▼ TTF €81.97/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB $108.8/b ● SPR_US 286.6 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 133.3 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Bangladesh has long run on domestic natural gas, but maturing fields have forced rising and costly LNG imports just as foreign-exchange reserves came under strain. It imports all of its oil. A vast, low-lying delta population makes it acutely exposed to climate shocks.
Bangladesh is water-abundant in the monsoon but faces dry-season scarcity and salt intrusion in the south.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas · domestic fields and LNGDomestic gas is depleting; LNG imports are rising but constrained by the foreign-exchange squeeze. | tightening | 20days | CRITICAL |
| Oil · commercial inventoriesAll crude and product is imported; stocks are thin against currency pressure. | low | 20days | WATCH |
| Grain · public rice and wheat stocksRice output nearly covers demand; wheat is largely imported. | moderate | 60days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/BGD | jq '.stress' > 0.62