The two prints
| Hub | Price | Unit | In comparable units | |---|---|---|---| | Henry Hub (Yahoo NG=F) | $3.02 | /MMBtu | $3.02/MMBtu | | Dutch TTF (Yahoo TTF=F) | €48.68 | /MWh | ≈ $14.5/MMBtu* |
\* Conversion: €/MWh × 0.293 = $/MMBtu (at $1 = €0.93 mid-rate).
The TTF–HH spread of about $11.5/MMBtu is the headline metric for trans-Atlantic LNG economics.
What the spread has to cover
For a cargo to make it economically from a US Gulf Coast liquefaction plant to a European regasification terminal, the spread between Henry Hub feed-gas cost and the European delivered price has to cover:
| Cost component | $/MMBtu | |---|---| | Liquefaction tolling fee (typical 115% × HH) | ~3.50 | | Shipping (US Gulf → NW Europe) | ~0.80 | | Boil-off + heel | ~0.20 | | Regasification | ~0.30 | | Trader margin | ~0.40 | | Total cover required | ~5.20 |
Anything above ~$5.20/MMBtu of spread is net margin for the trader. The current ~$11.5/MMBtu spread is therefore ~$6.30/MMBtu of pure arb profit per delivered cargo.
A standard 165,000 m³ LNG carrier holds ~3.5 mcf of gas equivalent → roughly 3.5 million MMBtu per cargo. At $6.30/MMBtu net margin, that is ~$22 million of profit per cargo.
Why the spread is this wide
Demand side:
- EU gas storage at 37.9% — well below norm; refill bid is aggressive
- Asian (JKM) spot at $14-15/MMBtu pulls cargoes east; Europe pays competitive
- The Russian pipeline supply gap remains structural
Supply side:
- US LNG export utilisation near 95% nameplate; no spare in the system
- Sabine Pass Train 7, Plaquemines Phase 2 not online until late 2026
- Canadian LNG (LNG Canada) ramp is slower than scheduled
What changes the arithmetic
The spread compresses when:
- EU storage hits 80%+ — bid weakens
- Asian demand softens (mild summer cooling in Japan/Korea)
- US capacity additions come online (Plaquemines Phase 2 — late 2026)
- Norwegian / Algerian pipeline supply surprises positively to Europe
The spread widens when:
- Any Russian gas remaining via TurkStream is interrupted
- Hormuz disruption affects Qatari LNG
- Algerian / Egyptian export grid stresses cap their offload
- EU storage refill misses 80% Nov target
What we're watching
- AGSI+ weekly aggregate fill rate
- US EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (Thursday 10:30 ET releases)
- Yamal LNG and Sabetta loadings (sanctioned Russian LNG continues to trade)
Source: Yahoo Finance `NG=F` and `TTF=F` via the shortage.life Yahoo ingestion; GIE AGSI+ EU storage aggregate.