Southern African grid crisis.
prob 0.53
severity 3.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 10 Southern African economies · power + mining$ shortage country get ZAF > stress_index: 0.60 WATCH > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
South Africa runs on coal, which generates most of its electricity and is a major export, but a chronic crisis at the utility Eskom has produced years of rolling blackouts known as load-shedding. It imports all of its crude oil. A major agricultural producer, it generally runs a food surplus.
South Africa faces severe recurrent drought; Cape Town's 'Day Zero' crisis underlined its reservoir fragility.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity · coal-dominated gridA chronic crisis at Eskom has produced years of rolling blackouts. | crisis-prone | — | CRITICAL |
| Coal · production and exportSouth Africa is a major coal producer and exporter. | large surplus | — | STABLE |
| Oil · imported crude and refined productAll crude is imported; several refineries have closed, raising product imports. | moderate | 25days | WATCH |
| Grain · maize surplusSouth Africa is a major maize producer and generally runs a food surplus. | comfortable | 110days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ZAF | jq '.stress' > 0.60