East Asian LNG-supply squeeze.
prob 0.45
severity 3.3 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 5 East Asian economies · LNG + power$ shortage country get TWN > stress_index: 0.60 WATCH > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Taiwan imports almost all of its energy as crude, LNG and coal to power the world's most advanced semiconductor industry. Its supply lines all cross seas exposed to military tension, and its LNG storage is thin. Low cereal self-sufficiency adds a structural food-import dependence.
Taiwan faces recurrent severe drought that draws its reservoirs critically low.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · strategic and commercial reserveTaiwan holds around 90 days of oil cover; the standing risk is a blockade of supply routes. | ~90 days | 90days | WATCH |
| Natural gas · LNG terminal supplyLNG storage is only days deep, leaving the power system acutely exposed to any import interruption. | very thin storage | 11days | CRITICAL |
| Grain · government rice stocksGovernment rice stocks are held, but wheat and feed grain are imported. | moderate | 70days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/TWN | jq '.stress' > 0.60