Central Asian winter power and gas shortfall.
prob 0.43
severity 3.1 / 5 · revision 2026-05-07watch · 6 Central Asian economies · gas + power$ shortage country get TJK > stress_index: 0.56 WATCH > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Tajikistan, the poorest Central Asian state, relies on hydropower — including the giant Rogun dam under construction — for its electricity, but suffers severe winter shortages. It imports all of its fuel. Landlocked and mountainous, it is heavily dependent on remittances.
Tajikistan is the source of much of Central Asia's water, though glacier loss threatens future flows.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity · hydropowerHydropower covers most demand but falls short each winter; the Rogun dam is still under construction. | winter-constrained | — | CRITICAL |
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported into a poor, landlocked economy. | low | 15days | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksCereal output covers part of demand; the balance is imported. | limited | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/TJK | jq '.stress' > 0.56