East African foreign-exchange and fuel squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06watch · 10 East African economies · fuel + FX + food$ shortage country get SSD > stress_index: 0.82 CRITICAL > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
South Sudan depends almost entirely on oil for revenue, but its crude must be exported through a pipeline across war-torn Sudan, a route repeatedly disrupted. The world's youngest country has endured civil war, displacement and recurrent flooding, leaving much of the population facing acute hunger.
South Sudan swings between vast Nile flooding and drought, with the Sudd wetlands at its centre.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · production and export pipelineOil must be exported through war-torn Sudan; the route is repeatedly cut. | disrupted | 10days | CRITICAL |
| Refined products · importedAll refined fuel is imported into a conflict-stricken economy. | very low | 10days | CRITICAL |
| Grain · humanitarian and commercial stocksConflict and flooding leave much of the population facing acute hunger. | critically low | 25days | CRITICAL |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/SSD | jq '.stress' > 0.82