East African foreign-exchange and fuel squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06watch · 10 East African economies · fuel + FX + food$ shortage country get RWA > stress_index: 0.54 WATCH > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Rwanda imports all of its fuel overland through Tanzania and Kenya, leaving it exposed on long transit corridors as a small landlocked country. It taps methane from Lake Kivu for power and has expanded electrification rapidly. Densely populated, it imports part of its food.
Rwanda, the 'land of a thousand hills', is relatively water-rich, though eastern districts face recurrent drought.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported overland through Tanzania and Kenya. | limited | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · Lake Kivu methane, hydro and solarMethane from Lake Kivu and hydropower support a rapidly electrifying grid. | balanced | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial stocksDense population leaves Rwanda importing part of its food. | limited | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/RWA | jq '.stress' > 0.54