Black Sea grain corridor full halt.
prob 0.31
severity 4.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-13elevated · MENA + N Africa importers · wheat + corn + freight$ shortage country get RUS > stress_index: 0.55 WATCH > 9 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $90.79/b ▼ TTF €62.72/MWh ▲ OPEC_ORB $108.8/b ● SPR_US 304.8 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.3 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Russia is among the top three crude producers and the second-largest natural-gas producer, and is the world's largest wheat exporter. Energy and grain sales remain its fiscal backbone. Sanctions have not cut output but have rerouted exports toward Asia at widening discounts and constrained access to technology, insurance and Western shipping.
Vast freshwater resources leave Russia water-rich overall, though its southern grain regions face periodic drought.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · commercial inventoriesAs a major producer Russia holds ample crude and product stocks; the binding constraint is export logistics and sanctions, not volume. | large | 55days | STABLE |
| Refined products · domesticDomestic product cover periodically tightened by Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries and by export-management measures. | adequate | 40days | WATCH |
| Natural gas · underground storageExtensive storage network supports a large domestic heating load through the winter season. | ~72 Bcm | 55days | STABLE |
| Grain · intervention fundState intervention grain fund used to stabilise domestic prices in the world's largest wheat-exporting economy. | ~10 Mt | 120days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/RUS | jq '.stress' > 0.55