Prolonged Panama Canal drought disruption.
prob 0.44
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 8 Pacific-facing economies · freight + grain + fuel$ shortage country get PER > stress_index: 0.46 WATCH > 1 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Peru is a major copper producer with significant natural gas output from the Camisea fields, but it imports refined fuel as domestic refining lags demand. Mining conflicts periodically disrupt output. Cereal import dependence and political instability are recurring pressures.
Peru faces water stress on its arid Pacific coast and Andean glacier retreat that threatens dry-season flows.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas · Camisea productionThe Camisea fields cover domestic gas demand with a surplus for LNG export. | domestic surplus | 40days | STABLE |
| Refined products · domestic and importedRefining lags demand, so Peru imports diesel and other products. | tight | 25days | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksCereal self-sufficiency is low; wheat is largely imported. | moderate | 40days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/PER | jq '.stress' > 0.46