Prolonged Panama Canal drought disruption.
prob 0.44
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 8 Pacific-facing economies · freight + grain + fuel$ shortage country get PAN > stress_index: 0.34 STABLE > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Panama is a logistics and shipping hub whose economy turns on the Panama Canal. It imports nearly all of its fuel and runs a power mix of hydro, an LNG plant and imported oil. Recurrent drought lowers canal water levels, squeezing transits, hydropower and the wider economy at once.
Drought has lowered Gatún Lake, forcing draft and transit restrictions on the Panama Canal.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · commercial inventoriesNearly all fuel is imported; the Colón free zone holds significant transit stock. | moderate | 30days | WATCH |
| Electricity · hydro and LNGHydropower and an LNG-fired plant cover demand; drought lowers hydro output. | balanced | — | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksVery low cereal self-sufficiency leaves Panama dependent on imported staples. | limited | 35days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/PAN | jq '.stress' > 0.34