South Asian fertilizer and fuel crunch.
prob 0.50
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 8 South Asian economies · fertilizer + fuel + food$ shortage country get NPL > stress_index: 0.52 WATCH > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Nepal imports every drop of its liquid fuel, almost entirely overland from India, leaving it exposed whenever that border is disrupted. It is rich in untapped hydropower and has begun exporting surplus electricity. Landlocked in the Himalaya, it faces difficult logistics.
Nepal is water-rich from Himalayan rivers, though hill springs and water sources are drying.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported from India; any border disruption swiftly causes shortages. | low | 15days | WATCH |
| Electricity · Himalayan hydropowerHydropower covers domestic demand, with surplus electricity now exported to India. | growing surplus | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial stocksCereal output nearly covers demand; some rice and wheat are imported. | moderate | 50days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/NPL | jq '.stress' > 0.52