Pacific island fuel crisis.
prob 0.49
severity 3.4 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09elevated · 12 Pacific island economies · diesel + power$ shortage country get MHL > stress_index: 0.66 CRITICAL > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
The Marshall Islands, a chain of low-lying atolls, imports all of its energy and food, with diesel supplying its island grids. In free association with the United States, it faces an existential threat from sea-level rise across its barely-above-water territory.
The Marshall Islands have no surface freshwater and depend on rainwater catchment under recurrent drought emergencies.
No major lake or reservoir
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported across low-lying atolls. | limited | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · diesel and solarDiesel, with growing solar, supplies atoll grids. | fragile | — | CRITICAL |
| Food · commercial stocksWith negligible agriculture, all food is imported. | limited | 25days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MHL | jq '.stress' > 0.66