African island-states fuel crisis.
prob 0.44
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-08watch · 6 African island economies · diesel + power$ shortage country get MDG > stress_index: 0.66 CRITICAL > 3 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Madagascar imports all of its fuel and electrifies only a minority of its population, relying on hydropower and diesel. One of the world's poorest countries, it is acutely exposed to cyclones, and recurrent drought in its south has driven episodes of severe hunger.
Southern Madagascar has suffered a catastrophic drought driving acute hunger, while the highlands stay wetter.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported; supply is thin in a low-income island economy. | limited | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · hydro and dieselPower reaches only a minority; hydropower falls in the dry season. | fragile | — | CRITICAL |
| Grain · rice stocksDrought in the south has driven episodes of severe hunger. | limited | 40days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MDG | jq '.stress' > 0.66