South Asian fertilizer and fuel crunch.
prob 0.50
severity 3.7 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 8 South Asian economies · fertilizer + fuel + food$ shortage country get LKA > stress_index: 0.66 CRITICAL > 1 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Sri Lanka imports all of its fuel and suffered a sovereign default and economic collapse that left it without the foreign exchange to buy energy, triggering fuel queues and blackouts. It has since stabilised under an IMF programme. Hydropower covers much of its electricity, and food import dependence remains.
Sri Lanka's dry zone faces recurrent drought, managed through its ancient network of irrigation tanks.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · commercial inventoriesAll fuel is imported; the 2022 crisis showed how fast a foreign-exchange shortage empties stocks. | low | 15days | CRITICAL |
| Electricity · hydro and thermalHydropower covers much of the grid, with imported-fuel thermal plants on the margin. | drought-sensitive | — | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksDomestic rice covers part of demand; wheat is fully imported. | limited | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/LKA | jq '.stress' > 0.66