East African foreign-exchange and fuel squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06watch · 10 East African economies · fuel + FX + food$ shortage country get ETH > stress_index: 0.68 CRITICAL > 3 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Ethiopia, Africa's second-most populous country, imports all of its fuel, almost entirely through the port of Djibouti, leaving it acutely exposed on a single corridor. The giant GERD dam has made it a major hydropower generator and exporter. Drought, conflict and a large population strain food security.
Ethiopia has suffered repeated severe droughts; Lake Tana feeds the Blue Nile and the GERD reservoir is filling.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported via Djibouti; the single corridor is the standing risk. | low | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · GERD hydropowerThe GERD dam has made Ethiopia a major hydropower generator and exporter. | large surplus | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial and aid stocksDrought and conflict recurrently push parts of the population into food crisis. | moderate | 45days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ETH | jq '.stress' > 0.68