Southern African grid crisis.
prob 0.53
severity 3.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 10 Southern African economies · power + mining$ shortage country get ZMB > stress_index: 0.60 WATCH > 3 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Zambia is a major copper producer whose electricity comes overwhelmingly from hydropower, leaving its grid acutely exposed to drought — a severe Kariba dam shortfall has caused prolonged blackouts. It imports all of its fuel. A recent debt restructuring is helping the economy stabilise.
Severe drought has drawn Lake Kariba to record lows, crippling Zambia's hydropower.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported, partly via a pipeline from Tanzania. | limited | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · Kariba hydropowerHydropower dominates the grid; a severe drought has caused prolonged blackouts. | drought-hit | — | CRITICAL |
| Grain · maize stocksDrought has cut maize output, lifting import needs. | moderate | 50days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ZMB | jq '.stress' > 0.60