East African foreign-exchange and fuel squeeze.
prob 0.46
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06watch · 10 East African economies · fuel + FX + food$ shortage country get UGA > stress_index: 0.56 WATCH > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $72.13/b ● TTF €44.25/MWh ● OPEC_ORB n/a SPR_US 331.2 Mb ▼ FAO_FFPI 130.8 ▼
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Uganda imports all of its fuel overland, mostly through Kenya, and is developing its Lake Albert oilfields with a pipeline to the Tanzanian coast that would make it an oil exporter. Hydropower on the Nile supplies its grid. A fertile country, it generally produces a food surplus.
Uganda is water-rich around Lake Victoria, the source of the Nile, though the north faces recurrent drought.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel and developing fieldsAll fuel is currently imported; the Lake Albert fields and EACOP pipeline are under development. | transitioning | 20days | WATCH |
| Electricity · Nile hydropowerHydropower dams on the Nile supply the grid with a surplus. | surplus | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial surplusFertile conditions generally give Uganda a food surplus. | comfortable | 105days | STABLE |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/UGA | jq '.stress' > 0.56