Southern African grid crisis.
prob 0.53
severity 3.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 10 Southern African economies · power + mining$ shortage country get MWI > stress_index: 0.66 CRITICAL > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Malawi, a small landlocked country and one of the world's poorest, imports all of its fuel overland and suffers recurrent shortages. Its grid depends on hydropower from the Shire River, vulnerable to drought and low lake levels. A dense, farming population is highly exposed to climate shocks.
Malawi depends on Lake Malawi for water, fisheries and power; drought lowers its level and outflow.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil · imported fuel stocksAll fuel is imported overland; shortages recur with forex scarcity. | low | 15days | CRITICAL |
| Electricity · Shire River hydropowerThe grid depends on hydropower vulnerable to drought and low lake levels. | drought-hit | — | CRITICAL |
| Grain · maize stocksDrought repeatedly cuts the maize crop, the dietary staple. | low | 40days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MWI | jq '.stress' > 0.66