Southern African grid crisis.
prob 0.53
severity 3.8 / 5 · revision 2026-05-10elevated · 10 Southern African economies · power + mining$ shortage country get MOZ > stress_index: 0.65 WATCH > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Mozambique holds vast offshore natural-gas reserves and has begun LNG exports, though a jihadist insurgency in the northern Cabo Delgado province has delayed the largest projects. The Cahora Bassa dam makes it a hydropower exporter. It imports refined fuel and remains exposed to cyclones.
Mozambique swings between cyclone flooding and drought; the Cahora Bassa reservoir anchors its hydropower.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas · Rovuma LNGVast offshore gas reserves are being developed, though insurgency has delayed projects. | developing | — | WATCH |
| Electricity · Cahora Bassa hydropowerThe Cahora Bassa dam makes Mozambique a regional hydropower exporter. | export surplus | — | STABLE |
| Grain · commercial stocksCyclones and flooding recurrently disrupt the harvest. | limited | 40days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MOZ | jq '.stress' > 0.65