Southeast Asian grid strain.
prob 0.42
severity 3.0 / 5 · revision 2026-05-06watch · 11 Southeast Asian economies · power + manufacturing$ shortage country get MMR > stress_index: 0.78 CRITICAL > 2 events · 1 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Myanmar exports natural gas, chiefly to China and Thailand, but a civil war since the 2021 coup has shattered its economy, power grid and supply chains. It imports refined fuel amid currency collapse. Rice output gives a food surplus, though conflict disrupts distribution.
Myanmar faces recurrent dry-zone drought, with conflict disrupting water management.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas · production for exportOffshore gas is exported to China and Thailand; the revenue underpins a war economy. | moderate | — | WATCH |
| Refined products · importedFuel imports are constrained by currency collapse and conflict, causing chronic shortages. | very low | 15days | CRITICAL |
| Grain · rice surplusRice output exceeds demand, but war repeatedly disrupts milling and distribution. | moderate | 100days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/MMR | jq '.stress' > 0.78