Prolonged Panama Canal drought disruption.
prob 0.44
severity 3.2 / 5 · revision 2026-05-09watch · 8 Pacific-facing economies · freight + grain + fuel$ shortage country get ECU > stress_index: 0.52 WATCH > 2 events · 2 scenarios > refreshed 2026-05-17
BRENT $84.27 ▲ TTF €31.50 ▼ OPEC_SP 3.8 mb/d ● SPR_US 372.4 Mb FAO_FFPI 121.4 ▲
The v3.2 stress index is a six-axis composite of energy and food exposure, geopolitical pressure, fiscal headroom, demography and supply concentration, normalised to a 0–1 scale.
Ecuador exports crude oil but imports refined fuel, and its dollarized economy carries heavy fuel subsidies whose reform repeatedly triggers unrest. Its Amazon pipelines are exposed to erosion and landslides. Surging gang violence is a growing risk to infrastructure.
Severe drought has drawn Ecuador's hydropower reservoirs low, forcing prolonged blackouts.
| STOCK TYPE | RESERVE | DAYS COVER | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crude · production and exportEcuador exports crude; pipeline integrity through the Amazon is the standing risk. | moderate | 25days | WATCH |
| Refined products · importedLimited refining forces product imports despite crude exports. | tight | 20days | WATCH |
| Grain · commercial stocksCereal self-sufficiency is low; wheat is largely imported. | limited | 35days | WATCH |
$ curl -s https://api.shortage.life/v1/countries/ECU | jq '.stress' > 0.52