The setup
The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 mb/d of crude and condensate plus 25-30% of global LNG trade. Our scenarios table holds hormuz-2026 at severity 4.2, status active — the highest-severity active scenario alongside sahel-famine-2026 and ukraine-grid-collapse-2026.
The original 2024 modelling assumed:
- 5-day full closure
- 14-day partial reopening
- 6-week throughput normalisation
We re-ran the model against current data on 24 May 2026. Three results changed.
Result 1: OPEC+ spare exhaustion accelerates
Effective OPEC+ spare capacity is now estimated at 3.8 mb/d vs the original 4.7 mb/d assumption. Day-1 outage is 16 mb/d of crude flow (5-day average) plus 0.4 mb/d of refined products.
- Day 1: spare drawn at maximum rate (Saudi, UAE, Kuwait combined): ~2.5 mb/d
- Day 2: 5.0 mb/d cumulative; 67% of spare absorbed
- Day 3: 7.4 mb/d cumulative; spare exhausted at current OPEC+ floor
In the original model, spare exhaustion happened on day 5. Now it's day 3.
Result 2: SPR coordinated draw moves the timeline
With the US SPR at 374.2 Mbbl and a maximum sustainable IEA-coordinated draw of 4.4 mb/d (US) + 1.2 mb/d (other members), the 18-day timeline to baseline is conditional on coordinated political approval within 72 hours of the event.
The 2022 precedent (post-Russia invasion of Ukraine) saw the US-led 60-mbl coordinated release announced within 48 hours. The institutional muscle memory exists. The question is whether the current US administration would lead it again.
Result 3: European gas storage at 38% is a separate vulnerability
A Hormuz closure cuts ~25% of global LNG export flows. With EU gas storage at 37.9% of working volume — well below the seasonal norm — Europe goes into the disruption with thinner buffer than in 2024.
The cross-impact: LNG cargoes destined for Europe would re-route around Hormuz at higher freight cost. If the European bid clears versus the Asian bid (JKM), supply finds its way; if not, EU industrial demand-destruction is the buffer that absorbs the shock.
Implication for the operational layer
For corporate clients with regional manufacturing, logistics or fuel-burn exposure: the assumptions in the 2024 BCP that referenced "OPEC+ floor of 4.5 mb/d spare" need refreshing to 3.5-4.0 mb/d. The trigger windows for switching to alternate fuel supplies are correspondingly shorter.
Resiplan's continuity-planning module handles the scenario translation. The data refresh is here on shortage.life; the corporate workflow is there.
Sources: shortage.life scenarios table (`hormuz-2026`); EIA Open Data v2; GIE AGSI+; OPEC May 2026 MOMR.