The hourly snapshot
Energy-Charts (Fraunhofer ISE) day-ahead clearing prices, latest hourly observation:
| Zone | EUR/MWh | Δ24h | |---|---|---| | Belgium | 137.05 | +7.8% | | Austria | 129.55 | -9.2% | | Poland | 128.35 | -7.9% | | Germany/Lux | 127.35 | -7.0% | | Netherlands | 127.35 | -2.0% | | France | 60.00 | -8.5% | | Spain | 60.00 | -8.5% |
The Belgium–France spread is €77/MWh, a 128% premium. These are physically interconnected grids with roughly 3 GW of capacity between them.
What drives the split
1. Generation mix. France runs 56 GW of nuclear baseload, currently at ~80% availability. Spain has 28 GW of renewables clearing during sunny mid-day hours. Belgium retired Doel-3 and Tihange-2; its remaining nuclear (Tihange-1, Doel-4) provides about 3 GW, the rest is gas-fired.
2. Gas exposure. Belgium's marginal MWh is set by combined-cycle gas turbines burning TTF gas at €48.68/MWh. At the current heat rate, that's a ~€105/MWh fuel cost before CO₂, before margin. The cleared price is consistent with merit-order economics.
3. Interconnection constraints. Nominal NTC between France and Belgium is 3,000 MW. Effective availability today is lower due to scheduled outages on the Avelin–Avelgem corridor. Congestion rent accrues — to ENTSO-E members, not to consumers.
4. Demand profile. Belgium's industrial demand (chemicals, steel) is less elastic than France's residential-weighted profile. Industrial consumers can't readily defer load.
Implications
For the energy-intensive industries clustered around Antwerp, a €77/MWh persistent gap is the difference between continuing operations and curtailment. The political response — wholesale market reform, capacity remuneration mechanisms — is moving in Brussels but the time horizon is years, not weeks.
Source: Energy-Charts.info (Fraunhofer ISE) public API.