The print
Antimony trioxide spot is at $58,000/t in our commodities table, sourced from the Shanghai Metals Market reference. That is up from roughly $20,000/t at end-2023.
Why it matters
Antimony does three things almost nothing else does at scale:
- Flame retardant in plastics, textiles, and ABS resin (about 50% of demand)
- Battery alloy in lead-acid cells — still the dominant SLI battery chemistry
- Photovoltaic glass clarifier — the bit most people don't know about, where it enters the polysilicon supply chain
Where it comes from
| Source | Share | Status | |---|---|---| | China | ~55% mined, ~80% refined | export-licensed | | Russia | ~20% mined | sanctions-exposed | | Tajikistan | ~12% mined | Chinese-owned majority | | Australia (Hillgrove) | ~3% | restart pending | | US (Stibnite) | ~2% | Perpetua project, 2028 first ore |
Western refining capacity is essentially zero outside of one small Belgian facility. The September 2024 Chinese export licensing tightening forced Western buyers into spot at any price.
How shortage.life flags this
The commodity's stress score is 0.84, top of our 75-commodity table. The score weights:
- Supply concentration (HHI on refined output) → 0.92
- Strategic substitutability → low
- Stockpile transparency → opaque (no equivalent of SPR)
- Price volatility 3y → very high
The corporate read
For European chemicals, ABS resin, and lead-acid battery manufacturers, antimony is one of those raw materials that doesn't appear on the front page of the risk register until it's already $58k/t. The continuity plans that name it as a critical input are a vanishingly small minority.
Source: shortage.life commodities table (Shanghai Metals Market reference).